Financial Market Disruption And The UK Economy
This month the Deputy Governor of the Bank of England, Sir John Gieve, gave a speech outlining his thoughts on the recent financial market disruption and the ongoing impact it is having on the UK economy. He also expressed his thoughts on the immediate inflation pressures stemming from the growing prices of both energy and food.
Sir Gieve was appointed as Deputy Governor in January 2006 and is also a member of the Board of FSA. The reasoning he provides behind the slowdown in the economy is related in part to the many rises in the interest rate which the UK experienced last year 2007, which rose to 5.75% following the fifth increase since August 2005.
With the next meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee just around the corner, scheduled for February 6-7th, speculation of the Bank of England adopting a more neutral stance in policy, as opposed to restrictive, may be justifiable.
Increases in food, petrol, gas and electricity prices are now coming through as a result of the fall in sterling, further pushing up our above target inflation rate. Consumer spending is consequently slowing down and along with it the property market, as house prices throughout the UK are slowly experiencing a decline. The recent disruption in our UK banking system, particularly the Northern Rock crisis and its aftermath, has seen tighter lending criteria being put into place which in turn is affecting both mortgage and credit approvals.
Sir Gieve said that "the UK's short term inflation expectations remain uncomfortably high" and concluded that throughout these testing times, the MPC must look beyond the central projection for the UK economy in order to weigh up all the potential risks, something he believes will require not only difficult judgements but also careful explanation in the months that lie ahead.
Published on February 5, 2008
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