Is There Change In The Near Future?
The question that all economists are asking is whether the UK economy is preparing for a change. The bank sector has released a dozen reports within the last two weeks offering analysis, and the media followed by making predictions.
The question, according to FXstreet: The Forex market, is whether the crisis in the UK bank sector will impact the economy as a whole. They believe the direct impact will be felt in the credit channel. They expect the crisis to accelerate rapidly resulting in the tightening of credit conditions. Their conclusion: It will be harder to get a loan.
The Financial Services Authority warned in June that lenders were too reckless when lending to borrowers with poor personal finances.
"We therefore believe that the crisis in the financial markets will put pressure on the housing market, which was already heading for leaner times. To begin with, the tightening will hit first-time buyers and people with low credit ratings. This 'feeder channel' into the housing market will therefore dry up to some extent in the coming quarters. In addition, it is important not to underestimate the psychological effect that the bank runs and the renewed focus on the housing market could have on the UK housing market."
These predictions are following forecasts that the Bank of England will lower the interest rate in the first quarter of 2008. However, no one is making any statements concerning the banking industry's generosity, and whether they will pass the benefits on to their customers.
"We now anticipate two 25bp cuts in Q1 and Q2 next year, taking the base rate back down to 5.25%. Lower rates will have a further negative effect on GBP," said Anne Lohmann Rasmussen of Danske Bank when interviewed by FXstreet.
Published on October 16, 2007
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